The resumption of the Russian stock markets, which took place on March 24-25, after almost a month’s break, can be considered satisfactory.
Despite some specifics due to geopolitical events, the stock market, at least, did not show any correlation with ADR of Russian issuers in London. It should be reminded that at the end of February they fell decently. Fall on some issuers reached 90%.
The
Moscow Exchange: It Could Have Been Worse
On Thursday, March 24, the Moscow Exchange traded on the back of a ban on short positions, the absence of foreign investors, and the existence of significant buy-side lots
. Moscow Exchange. Photo: Kommersant Despite
the fact that at the close of the index IMOEX posted a gain of only 4.4%, on some securities it was more than significant. For example, Phosagro, Tatneft, and Novatek gained 26%, 20%, and 18%, respectively.
Summarizing the results of the first trading day after a long break, it should be noted that there was not a wave of closing positions on margin notifications, which many industry analysts quite objectively assumed.
In contrast to the 100-billion-dollar volume of Thursday, Friday, March 25, was less active. Investors made transactions only for 49 billion rubles. Phosagro (+9.5%) and Novatek (+4.2%) remained the growth leaders. Gazprom shares, which went up the day before by 13.4%, were the leaders of the fall on Friday, having lost more than 12%.
For a number of issuers, large purchase orders could be observed again. But “a big buyer was more likely to indicate its presence, rather than trying to buy something specifically” – commented on this moment analysts of “Finam”.
In shares of Rosneft and GMK Norilsk Nickel, according to experts of Freedom Finance , purchase orders may have been put out in the interests of major shareholders of these companies.
Next week the market participants expect the tendency for decline in the volume of trades to continue at the background of a number of uncertainties. Questions remain open regarding the return of non-residents, as well as the terms on which they will participate in trading.
IMOEX index: downside potential – 50%
Summing up some intermediate results of the Russian stock market reanimation, it is possible to assume that the market will continue to decline in the short term. It is hard to talk about specific index levels, but the NIF’s money will be noticeable right away. This, most likely, will be the so-called bottom.
Based on current stock prices, this could be 30-50% below Friday’s close. It will also be possible to start forming medium- and long-term investments there.
