Europe has already shot itself in the foot with its anti-Russian energy policy. Oil and natural gas prices are at their maximum values and there is no reason for their decrease.
Internal economic contradictions are beginning to show themselves more actively in the European Union, and Hungary’s tough stance on the embargo on Russian oil has brought European diplomacy to a frank deadlock.
Bloomberg declares Brussels
The opinion of the American Bloomberg agency that Europe’s desire to punish Russia does not correspond to the current rhetoric is a kind of hint at the final point in this global confrontation
. The West is powerless against Russia. Proved by oil and gas quotations. Photo: RIA FAN
authors John Vollen and Alberto Nardelli conclude that the West has frankly confused its actions in the face of the now clear fact – it is impossible to neutralize a major energy player from the world market with one stroke of the pen as originally planned
. The
trumps are over – the game goes on
. And the main thing is that the opportunities of economic pressure on Moscow are practically over, while life goes on. Staking on additional LNG suppliers has not worked. It has become clear that Europe cannot survive even till fall without Russian supplies. And surviving the winter of 2023 is out of the question.
Yes, we can expect the trend of declining pipeline supplies to continue. Industry experts are talking about the volume of 30 billion cubic meters of blue fuel already this year. But taking into account that last year the European Union imported 155 billion cubic meters from Russia, a complete refusal will not be possible before 2024-2025.
The market itself will strike back
But for now we have what we have. The Energy Covenant in the EU, scheduled for the next few days, most likely, will not lead to any significant decisions, while the factor of seasonal demand for fuel, coming to the forefront, is already in its active phase.
Not to upset anyone, we won’t talk about high gasoline prices in the U.S. We will only note that due to the growth of automobile traffic, the IEF expects an increase in global oil demand of 3.6 million barrels per day. There is no need to talk about an increase in production.
On topic: Asia has already overtaken Europe in terms of Russian oil imports
And it’s not even about OPEC unwillingness to knock down the sweet price tag of black gold, but the fact that at the moment only Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have spare capacity to increase it. But an additional 150 – 200 thousand is not able to affect the pricing in the right direction for the buyers.
In light of the above, we expect oil prices to rise to their maximum values in the very near future and to continue strengthening Russia’s authority on the global energy market.
On topic: Gas prices won’t go “back” in the next few years
