Just when some thought that the aging bull is losing steam, investors have found new reasons to keep charging on.
At the beginning of this year when we surveyed 10 brokerage houses, the consensus was that the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) would rise from last year’s level but very few projected that the stock barometer could set new highs or even retest 8,000 levels.
The PSEi is now projected to rise to an average of 8,085 this year, based on our mid-year survey. This suggests a gain of 1,244.36 points or 18.2 percent from last year’s finish of 6,840.64. This indicates greater optimism compared to the consensus PSEi outlook of 7,612.5 at the beginning of the year even if there was hardly any upgrade in earnings forecasts.
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Based on our survey, corporate earnings are seen to grow by 8.6 percent, hardly improving from the consensus at the beginning of the year, as investors factored in actual earnings performance in the first quarter.
Thus, most upgrades in the PSEi outlook for the year were not quite about corporate earnings for the year, where growth prospects are not as exciting as in previous years. It’s more aligned with recent movements in the market.