The Global Burden of Disease study, published in The Lancet Public Health, predicts an increase in dementia cases in all 200 countries studied.
“Our study offers improved predictions of dementia globally as well as at the country level, giving policymakers and public health experts insight into the drivers of this growth,” said Emma Nichols, lead author of the paper from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at Washington State University.
According to the researchers, dementia is now the seventh leading cause of death worldwide and one of the leading causes of disability among older adults.
Although the study found that the smallest increase is projected in Western Europe, researchers expect a 74% increase in dementia cases there, from nearly 8 million in 2019 to nearly 14 million in 2050.
The Middle East and eastern sub-Saharan Africa are expected to be hardest hit, with an estimated 350% increase in dementia cases, mainly due to population growth.
Globally, dementia affects women more than men.
“In 2019, there were more women with dementia than men with dementia, and that trend is expected to continue into 2050,” the study says.
“It’s not just that women tend to live longer. It has been suggested that Alzheimer’s disease may spread differently in the brains of women than men – and several genetic risk factors appear to be associated with the risk of the disease by gender,” said study co-author Jamie Steinmetz of IHME.
The study looked at four risk factors for dementia – smoking, obesity, high blood sugar and low education. The scientists emphasized that improving global access to education should reduce the prevalence of dementia by more than 6 million cases worldwide by 2050.
But this will be counteracted by expected trends in obesity, high blood sugar and smoking, which will lead to an additional nearly 7 million additional cases of dementia.
“We need to focus more on preventing and controlling risk factors before they lead to dementia. Even modest successes in preventing dementia or slowing its progression will pay remarkable dividends,” Nichols said.
She added that “this means expanding locally appropriate, low-cost programs that support healthier diets, more exercise, smoking cessation and better access to education.”
Nevertheless, the study has been met with some criticism. Doctors Mikael Schwarzinger and Carole Dufuy of the Bordeaux University Hospital in France accused the study of “oversimplifying the basic mechanisms that cause dementia.”
“They give apocalyptic predictions that do not take into account recommended lifestyle changes over a lifetime,” Schwarzinger and Dufuy said in a joint commentary on the study.
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